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The Jammu and Kashmir Budget 2024-25, just presented to the Parliament, provides a good occasion to take stock of the situation after the abrogation of Article 370. The key driver of growth, the rate of public investment (as a percentage of GSDP), has declined sharply to 6.43 per cent in 2022-23 from 9.75 per cent in 2017-18. This despite an increase in the borrowings — the liabilities of the government on a per capita basis — have doubled in five years. Fiscal management hasn’t improved: After getting legislative approval to borrow Rs 4,000 crore last year, the UT government borrowed Rs 13,000 crore, that is, three times more. The tax incidence and efficiency has declined from 6.83 per cent to 5.60 per cent (own tax as percentage of GSDP). The unemployment rate was 18.3 per cent compared to 8 per cent nationally at the end of February 2023 as per CMIE.
As it turns out, the abrogation of Article 370, five years to the day, may not have restored enduring peace in J&K. The massive influx of tourism may not have opened the floodgates of developmental prosperity. The neoliberal industrial policy doesn’t seem to have triggered an investment boom.

The compelling achievement of BJP, post abrogation, is the absence of a counter-hegemonic view on Kashmir. Today, there is no alternative narrative on Kashmir. The rather rich and robust liberal view, that once dominated, dissipated overnight on August 5, 2019. Historically, political parties have had divergent views on Kashmir; be it the communists, the federalists, and, of course, the Congress. Not anymore. There is a consensus across political parties on the abrogation, even as some quibble on the modalities.
After changing the rule book for Kashmir, the rules of the game in Kashmir have been decisively changed. A peaceful parliamentary election without any incidents of violence. The highest turnout in three decades and more. Not even the customary call for a boycott. No bandh either. No reports of the Army herding out people to vote. All headlines, except the spurt in terrorist violence in Jammu, go in favour of the BJP. What has not made news is the existential anxiety underlying everyday life in Kashmir: An experience rather than expression of an uncertain future. The constitutional amendments, followed by legislative changes, executive fiats and administrative orders have eroded the social capital of Kashmir. Only a few Kashmiris have access to power, fewer still have influence over power and hardly any are in power. The personal despair and economic distress at the lower-income level is showing up as deviant social behaviour of the youth. By all local accounts, Kashmir is not very far from udta Punjab.
The relentless social media and platform communications — the outpouring of joy and celebration laced with spite — on the revocation of the special status of J&K has revealed that the special position of J&K in the Union was against the “collective conscience of India”. The revocation was, for the majority of Indians, a personal triumph.
Not so long ago, holidaying in Kashmir was either a cherished memory or an unfulfilled desire on the bucket list of middle-class Indians. For the rich and famous, it was an indulgence in summer and an adventure during winter. Post the abrogation of Article 370, going to Kashmir has become a national duty. Indeed, watching a commercial film on Kashmir has become a patriotic obligation. The religious fervour of pilgrimages often gets subsumed by the extensive state patronage. A selfie with the tricolour aflutter on the Ghanta Ghar in Lal Chowk is a trending display picture on social media. Kashmir, the erstwhile symbol of assimilation and accommodation, has become a metaphor for assertive integration and aggressive homogenisation.
The Valley-centric political parties have been put on the back foot. With their core ideological premise of “accession on the basis of autonomy” having been completely dismantled, they find themselves at the short end of the stick. For now, in line with the popular sentiment, their main electoral plank is restoration of autonomy, a tried and tested tactic. Status quo ante has been a political obsession of these parties. If prior to 2019 the demand was for the restoration of the 1953 position, now it is for the pre-2019 position, which in itself is a huge comedown.
While restoration of J&K’s erstwhile position as a fully empowered representative state government is undoubtedly a powerful rallying point for mobilising support, it cannot be the governance agenda, let alone a legislative objective in the extant structure. The role of the government of J&K has been redefined and its remit reduced. As such, how is a pre-2019 position going to be negotiated and navigated? The curt message of Indira Gandhi to Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah in 1975 — “hands of a clock don’t turn back” — has reverberated long in political corridors to be ignored.
There should be no illusion either that any national party will even engage on the revival of Article 370, let alone restore it, the INDIA alliance, included. Today, there is no appetite for the conclave politics of Farooq Abdullah, who. in 1983, hosted 59 state leaders from 17 regional parties in Srinagar. A resolution on specific provisions of Article 356 and Art 360 was passed that helped dilute the impending 48th amendment. The same cannot be done now for Article 370. Only the restoration of statehood will find support nationally.
Today, India, both as a polity and society, is battling it out to recalibrate its foundational balance as a nation. Kashmir played a distinctive role in the construct of a post-colonial Indian nationhood. Even now, despite its bruised identity, it can become an important element in building a national counter-narrative. This might then be the right time for the political leadership of Kashmir to be transformative; revisit their ideological moorings and reinvent their politics. The election, sooner than later, will make the government representative of the people. The challenge will be to make the state an embodiment of their social interest — plural, progressive, and devolved.
The writer is former finance minister of Jammu & Kashmir
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